Regime change refers to the overthrow of a foreign government, typically through revolution or coup d’etat. Advocates often portray it as a powerful tool for supplanting odious regimes and advancing American security, humanitarian, and economic interests abroad. However, academic research shows that covert regime change campaigns have severe short-term costs that far outweigh any benefits, and they often produce unintended consequences.
Why is this the case? Two common mindsets are to blame. First, policymakers tend to overestimate the ease with which regime change can be accomplished. Second, they fail to factor in the long-term cost of a regime change mission, including a decades-long state-building project that may not achieve their predetermined goals.
Both of these misperceptions are rooted in the fact that we have few examples of regime change missions succeeding as intended. This is because forcibly removing a foreign government is difficult and expensive, regardless of how it is accomplished.
Ultimately, regime change depends on the existence of several key elements. Opposition leaders must be able to navigate the complexities of taking power and implementing its policies. Civil society and the international community must be able to provide critical support and guidance, including diplomatic recognition, economic assistance, and technical expertise. Maintaining law and order is also essential, as is ensuring that the transition process is peaceful and stable.
A final challenge is managing expectations. The public must be convinced that the new government will address their concerns and make good on its promises, while also keeping in mind that there is likely to be a transition period before full democracy takes hold.
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